Executive summary

Rating: Selective Accumulate. Daniel Roth is not one brand. It is four ownership eras sharing one name, and the market prices authorship, not complication count. The founder era (1988 to 1994) is the only core asset. Since the LVMH relaunch of March 2023 it has rerated two to four times, with volatility to match: the C187 Tourbillon Double Face went from CHF 139,700 (Phillips, November 2024) to CHF 285,750 (Phillips Geneva, May 2025) to CHF 406,400 for steel No. 2 (Christie's Geneva, May 2026), while a white gold example the same week made CHF 241,300.

The Hour Glass era (1994 to 2000) is commercial dilution plus important exceptions. The Bulgari era (2000 to 2015) is strong engineering with a permanent authorship discount, except at the very top. The LVMH era (2023 onwards) has the best finishing in the brand's history, but retail already prices the story: regular tourbillons still clear below list (22% under on the DAAD01 in May, 4% under on the platinum DAAG01 in September), and only the Extra Plat trades above retail.

Venue is half the return. In May 2026 a platinum 2137 monopusher made HKD 952,500 at Phillips Hong Kong while a yellow gold example of the same reference made CHF 76,200 at Phillips Geneva. Different metal, but the gap is far wider than metal explains.

My reading is that era alone is not enough to establish a fair comparison. Configuration, documentation, condition and venue all matter. The 447 illustrates how a few strong results can change the narrative without establishing a liquid market.

Price anchors

Results include buyer's premium where the house reports it that way. Where the basis is not stated on the public page, the row says so.

DateHouseLot / configurationResultRead-across
2024-11-08Phillips Reloaded, GenevaC187 Tourbillon Double Face, lot 12CHF 139,700Pre-rerating base
2025-05-10Phillips Geneva XXI2187 Double Face, steel, lot 55CHF 285,750Doubled in six months
2026-05-12Christie's Geneva2187 steel No. 2/20, circa 1990CHF 406,400 (reported USD 520,192)Founder-era ceiling; steel and low numbers lead
2026-05-09Phillips Geneva XXIIIC187 white gold, lot 5CHF 241,300 (reported USD 310,547)Precious metal 40% below the steel print
2026-05-31Phillips Hong Kong XXII2137/C137 monopusher, platinum No. 19/52, lot 923HKD 952,500 (estimate HKD 200,000 to 400,000)Hong Kong premium on trophy early Roth
2026-05-10Phillips Geneva XXIII2137/C137 monopusher, yellow gold No. 6, lot 145CHF 76,200Same reference, same month, Geneva
2023-11-24Phillips Hong Kong XVII2147 skeleton chronograph, yellow gold, lot 827HKD 635,000Hand-engraved founder skeleton, the 447's ceiling reference
2025-10-19Monaco LegendBA2147/C147 chronograph, yellow gold No. 25, lot 203EUR 31,250Standard 2147 in Europe
2025-06Bonhams New YorkPapillon C317, rose gold 59/110USD 58,880Hour Glass exception
2020-07-10Phillips Hong Kong X447.X.60 white gold, salmon, circa 2000, lot 1038HKD 106,250447 starting point
2026-05-28Christie's Hong Kong, lot 2334447.X.60 white goldHKD 355,600 incl. 26% premium (USD 45,389)Six-year triple; 2023 midpoint was HKD 177,800 (Phillips HK XVI, lot 884)
2025-05-31Antiquorum Hong Kong, lot 307447.X.40 yellow gold, full setHKD 150,000 (premium basis not stated)Same reference unsold at HKD 56,000 to 70,000 estimate in October 2019
2022-03-12Ineichen, lot 19447.X.40 catalogued as rose goldCHF 18,000 (Ineichen states no buyer's premium applies)European floor; catalogue metal error
2025-05Phillips Geneva XXI608.Y.60 Grande & Petite Sonnerie Tourbillon, white goldCHF 209,550 (estimate CHF 70,000 to 140,000)Bulgari-era top complication at 1.5x high estimate
2026-05-10Phillips Geneva XXIIILVMH Tourbillon DAAD01, rose gold, retail CHF 155,000, lot 125CHF 120,65022% below retail
2026-05-09Phillips Geneva XXIIILVMH Extra Plat DBB001, rose gold, retail CHF 50,500, lot 3CHF 57,150Only relaunch line above retail

Thesis

Three claims drive everything below.

First, the eras do not trade together. A watch signed Daniel Roth can be founder work, Hour Glass work, Bulgari work or LVMH work, and the spread between eras is now wider than the spread between complications inside any one era. A founder-era steel three-hander with a salmon dial (207, HKD 114,300 at Phillips Hong Kong, March 2025) trades close to a Bulgari-era DR500 steel chronograph (HKD 107,950, Phillips Hong Kong, November 2023). Authorship is the variable.

Second, the relaunch is a price-discovery event for old watches, not a return engine for new ones. Every LVMH launch becomes a retail anchor: Tourbillon Souscription at CHF 140,000 (20 pieces, March 2023), rose gold Tourbillon at CHF 155,000 (August 2024), Extra Plat Souscription at CHF 45,000 (January 2025), Extra Plat rose gold at CHF 49,000 rising to CHF 50,500, platinum Tourbillon at CHF 185,000 (November 2025), Extra Plat Skeleton at CHF 85,000 (January 2026), Extra Plat Gilt at CHF 55,500 (September 2026). The originals reprice against those anchors. The new tourbillons themselves do not hold retail.

Third, venue is a return driver of the same order as reference. The 2137 platinum at HKD 952,500, the C127S white gold at HKD 635,000, the 2147 skeleton at HKD 635,000 and the 447 white gold salmon at HKD 355,600 were all Hong Kong prints. These results suggest a venue effect worth investigating. They are not matched transactions in identical watches; fees, condition, currency and different bidders prevent treating the gap as a repeatable arbitrage.

What the evidence shows

Founder era, 1988 to 1994

Roth left Breguet and launched in 1988 with Siber Hegner funding. The canon: C187/2187 double-face tourbillon (Lemania 387 derived), C147/2147 hand-wound chronograph (Lemania 2320), C137/2137 monopusher (52 pieces, 16 platinum), C117/2117 perpetual calendar (with Philippe Dufour, Lemania 8810), C127S skeleton retrograde and the 1994 Skeleton Tourbillon. Collector estimates put 1988 to 1995 output at 2,500 to 3,000 pieces; that is not a factory number. Identifiers: C1xx or 2xxx references, 35 x 38 mm double ellipse case, hand-cut guilloché, Roman chapter ring, blued spade hands, individually numbered dial.

Price behaviour: this is the only tier with "made by the author" evidence and the tier the relaunch rerated hardest. The C187 went CHF 139,700 to CHF 406,400 (steel No. 2) in eighteen months; the 2147 skeleton and the C127S each made HKD 635,000 in November 2023, from a level where a Christie's Hong Kong skeleton retrograde carried a HKD 45,000 to 60,000 estimate in 2015. The swings are real: the white gold C187 fell to CHF 241,300 in May 2026, the standard 2147 went CHF 63,500 (November 2023) to CHF 38,100 (November 2024) to CHF 53,340 (May 2025), and the C117 oscillated between CHF 44,450 and CHF 69,850 at Phillips Geneva across 2023 to 2025 without a trend. The examples differ in metal, number and condition, so they cannot establish a like-for-like return series. Steel and low-numbered pieces need their own comparables.

Hour Glass era, 1994 to 2000

After Siber Hegner withdrew, The Hour Glass of Singapore took a controlling interest on undisclosed terms. Roth stayed involved at first and faded out. The line widened: more steel, stamped dials, automatic calibres from Zenith El Primero derivatives (DR400/DR500), Frédéric Piguet, Lemania and Girard-Perregaux. References move to three digits plus a metal suffix (317, 446, 447). The Papillon C317 (1998, 250 pieces: 110 white gold, 110 rose gold, 30 platinum) is the tenth anniversary piece. The 447 was developed late in the period on the GP3080 base (released 1999). After the Asian financial crisis, Hour Glass sold Daniel Roth and Gérald Genta to Bulgari in 2000.

Price behaviour: dilution plus exceptions, not a broad decline. The exceptions are Papillon (USD 58,880 at Bonhams, cheap against founder tourbillons), continued production of first-era references, and the 447 salmon. The DR400 rose gold salmon guilloché made EUR 30,000 at Monaco Legend in October 2025 and tracks the market rather than leading it. Ordinary steel and stamped-dial pieces should not be bought at founder-era prices. A useful comparison in this era starts with the certificate date, configuration and service record, rather than a broad label about investment potential.

The 447 is the fastest-appreciating line in the catalogue, from a low base. White gold salmon in Hong Kong: HKD 106,250 (2020), HKD 177,800 (2023), HKD 355,600 (May 2026). Yellow gold full set: HKD 150,000 at Antiquorum Hong Kong in May 2025 against an unsold HKD 56,000 to 70,000 estimate in 2019. Europe has not followed: EUR 16,900, CHF 17,500 and CHF 18,000 hammer in 2021 to 2022, a platinum example without box and papers at USD 25,400 (Sotheby's, March 2025), dealer asks of USD 18,700 to 32,800. The Numero 1 full set at CHF 40,320 (Christie's Geneva, May 2025) is an exception. A Hong Kong private ask of HKD 600,000 sat unsold on Chrono24 in May 2026 and is not a data point. Three facts govern its class: the movement is the automatic DR101 on GP3080/GP3000 architecture with the chronograph module inverted to the dial side, not a skeletonised Lemania 2320; "skeleton" is market shorthand for an open dial; and the design is late Hour Glass while production ran to about 2004, so each piece is dated by its certificate. Accept those and the value is clear: the only Roth chronograph where the column wheel and clutch are watched from the front, and always one tier below the 2147.

Bulgari era, 2000 to 2015

Bulgari paid CHF 37.6 million plus an earn-out for Gérald Genta, Daniel Roth and the Le Sentier manufacture together; no Roth-only price was disclosed. Roth left around 2001. The brand became Bulgari Daniel Roth in 2010, the name left the dial in 2011, the line ended around 2015. Identifiers: long references (196.X.40.168.CN.BA style), 40 to 46 mm cases, more stamped or applied dials, double signatures after 2010.

Price behaviour: judge reference by reference. Bulgari built real high-horology capacity and the top pieces show it: 608.Y.60 at CHF 209,550 (Phillips Geneva, May 2025), 200.Y.50 Tourbillon Lumière 46/50 at HKD 508,000 (Phillips Hong Kong, 2025-11-22), 196.X.40 at HKD 444,500 (Phillips Hong Kong, March 2026), 199.Y.70 XV Years at CHF 82,550 (Phillips Geneva Sessions, September 2025). Volume references carry a permanent authorship discount: steel DR500 chronograph at HKD 107,950 (2023) and no trend since. Chinese collectors accept this era more readily than the Western auction hierarchy does, which is optionality, not a base case.

LVMH era, 2023 onwards

La Fabrique du Temps Louis Vuitton relaunched the name on 2023-03-21 under Jean Arnault, with Michel Navas and Enrico Barbasini on the new calibres. Solid gold hand-guilloché dials, 38.6 x 35.5 mm cases, finishing above the originals, 33 points of sale. No public catalogue raisonné, vintage authentication, buy-back or service policy for the old calibres.

Price behaviour: tourbillons trade below retail. DAAD01 rose gold (retail CHF 155,000) made CHF 120,650 at Phillips Geneva in May 2026 and USD 122,450 at FutureGrail in November 2025, 9% under low estimate. The platinum DAAG01 (retail CHF 185,000) was bid at CHF 85,000 on 2026-09-05 against a CHF 60,000 to 120,000 estimate in the Phillips Geneva Sessions, Fall 2026 online sale, and closed at CHF 177,800 (lot 78) when the sale ended on 2026-09-11, about 4% below retail. The same sale sold a second DBB001 at CHF 53,340 (lot 87), again above the CHF 50,500 retail. The Extra Plat is the exception: DBB001 rose gold at CHF 57,150 against CHF 50,500 retail and a CHF 20,000 to 40,000 estimate. Edition size and further supply are variables to monitor; these results do not establish a future price path. This era's contribution to old Roth is attention and price discovery, not its own appreciation.

Which references benefit, and which do not

Reference / configurationCallPrice questionComparison limits
2187/C187 tourbillonAccumulateHow much of the premium belongs to steel, low numbers or provenance?Results across metals and individual pieces do not form a repeat-sales index.
2137/C137 monopusherAccumulateWhy do the quoted Hong Kong and Geneva prices differ?Metal and venue change together, so the venue premium cannot be isolated.
2147/C147 chronographAccumulateHow do skeleton and standard versions compare?Separate dial treatment, case condition, documents and service history.
C127S and early skeleton tourbillonsAccumulateDoes renewed attention translate into repeatable transactions?Limited supply means a single result may dominate the apparent trend.
C117/2117 perpetual calendarHoldWhat premium is supported by documented authorship?Attribution needs independent support for the particular piece.
Papillon C317 and 446/447AccumulateHow much do configuration and completeness explain the spread?Use the exact metal, dial and documentation; dealer asks are not transactions.
Bulgari-era complicationsHoldHow does mechanical complexity compare with observed prices?Service access and sparse comparable sales are material limitations.
LVMH relaunchAvoid at retailHow far do completed secondary transactions sit from contemporaneous retail?Separate Souscription, regular editions and live bids; a live bid is not a result.

The calls follow authorship. Founder-era references are Accumulate because they are the only tier with "made by the author" evidence and the tier the relaunch rerated hardest; the entry is a Geneva or Monaco print, not a Hong Kong high, and the buyer accepts 40% swings between results. The C117 is Hold because its 2023 to 2025 results oscillated without a trend; a C2117 made CHF 203,200 against a CHF 30,000 to 60,000 estimate in the Phillips Geneva Sessions on 2026-09-11, after this note's data cut-off, and I would upgrade it once a second result confirms that level. The Papillon and 447 row is Accumulate only for the exceptions: Papillon in platinum first, then rose or white gold, and the salmon 447 with certificate and unpolished case; standard steel, stamped-dial and undocumented pieces in this era are Hold at best. Bulgari-era complications are Hold as a group, with 608.Y.60 and 199.Y.70 XV Years as the two references I would add on a Geneva estimate, and volume references, double-signature pieces and the steel DR500 as Reduce into any Hong Kong strength. The LVMH relaunch is Avoid at retail for the regular tourbillons, because every completed secondary result has sat below list; the Extra Plat Souscription and the first Skeleton batch are Watch, since the DBB001 has cleared retail twice but on a sample of two.

Risks

Thin market. Three white gold 447 results in 2026 ran from USD 30,500 (Bezel, July) to USD 38,680 (Spangaro, July) to USD 45,389 (Christie's Hong Kong, May), a 50% spread inside one year for one reference and metal. The 2137 has 52 examples; the 608.Y.60 trades once every few years. Selling into that hands pricing power to the buyer.

Volatility. Same reference, one year, 40% either way: C187 white gold CHF 285,750 to CHF 241,300; standard 2147 CHF 63,500 to CHF 38,100. A change in collector demand could widen spreads and reduce the usefulness of earlier auction benchmarks.

Condition and refinishing. The double ellipse case lives on its edge lines and bevels; over-polishing hurts this design more than most. On the 447 the movement finishing is on show from the front, so any later refinish of the column wheel, clutch or bridges is visible and priced. No source records salmon dial fading as a common 447 problem, but every dial must be checked.

Stamped dials. Hour Glass and Bulgari era steel pieces with stamped rather than hand-cut guilloché should not carry founder-era prices, and catalogues do not always distinguish them.

Catalogue attribution errors. Suffix 40 is yellow gold, 50 rose gold, 60 white gold, 70 platinum, yet the 447.X.40 has been listed as rose gold (Ineichen, 2022). Phillips described a circa 2003 447 as "early THG era" when Bulgari had owned the company since 2000. C107 and C207 get confused; C127S is a skeleton retrograde, not a skeleton tourbillon. Cross-check catalogue descriptions against hallmarks and documentation before treating two lots as comparable.

Service. No public factory policy for the old Lemania, Piguet, Zenith or GP calibres; DR101 module parts supply is unknown.

Relaunch pulling attention. New LVMH references anchor the originals, but continued tourbillon supply already sits below retail and could crowd Bulgari-era tourbillons.

FX and venue. Hong Kong results are in HKD, Geneva in CHF, Monaco in EUR. The Hong Kong premium is partly a currency and buyer-base effect and can compress if HKD-based bidders retreat. Any eventual estate effect (Roth is 81) would concentrate in undisputed founder work, not in the relaunch or the 447.

Horizon view

HorizonViewWhat would change it
Short (0 to 2 years)Founder era up, but not to be chased: Hong Kong rooms pay multiples of Geneva for trophy early Roth, and the 40% swings between results are normal. Hour Glass exceptions flat to up, with the 447 rising in Hong Kong only and Europe still at CHF 18,000 to 25,000. Bulgari era flat. LVMH regular tourbillons down or flat below retail; the Extra Plat holds above list on thin volume.Further completed sales of the same reference, metal and dial; unsold lots and sale fees, which test whether the reported spread persists beyond a few individual watches. A second DAAG01 print above CHF 160,000 would move the regular tourbillons to Hold; a run of unsold founder-era lots in Geneva would cut the founder call to Hold.
Mid (3 to 5 years)Founder era up and the core position. Hour Glass and Bulgari exceptions catch up as documented pieces separate from stamped-dial volume. The 447 rises further if the brand is formally periodised, since transitional references gain most from an official catalogue. LVMH flat: continued tourbillon supply anchors the originals without lifting itself.Archive access, authentication and service support for older calibres, which would make era and condition comparisons more reliable; a catalogue raisonné or vintage certification from LVMH; Chinese demand for Bulgari-era tourbillons; any estate effect, which would concentrate in undisputed founder work.
Long (5 to 10 years)Founder era strong up as the Roth canon inside the first-wave independent narrative. The 447 up but permanently one tier below the 2147. Bulgari volume references and LVMH regular tourbillons flat. Souscription pieces carry long-term optionality that is untested by any secondary sale.The depth of the collector base and continued parts and service availability, which affect liquidity and ownership costs without implying a specific return; whether the two-tier split seen in Gérald Genta and Urban Jürgensen, with no middle tier, holds for Roth.

Methodology and data

What counts as a result: a hammer or premium-inclusive price published by an auction house, or by an aggregator naming house, lot and date. Dealer listings and private asks are context only, never marks.

Premium treatment: results are premium-inclusive where the house reports them that way (Phillips, Christie's, Monaco Legend, Bonhams). Antiquorum Hong Kong publishes a sold price without stating the basis; the Ineichen 447 is shown as sold, since the lot page states that no buyer's premium applies. Spangaro and Bezel results came through an aggregator without a premium split; the dates and amounts (Spangaro, Italy, 2026-07-14, USD 38,680, 66% above estimate; Bezel Auctions, 2026-07-26, USD 30,500) match the EveryWatch record.

FX: prices are quoted in the currency reported by the house; for cross-reading I use about HKD 9.66 per CHF (2026-09-02). Implied rates in the reported pairs are consistent: Christie's Hong Kong HKD 355,600 as USD 45,389 (about 7.83 HKD per USD), Phillips Geneva CHF 241,300 as USD 310,547 (about 1.29 USD per CHF).

Sample: the research pack holds 118 findings and 93 price points across five angles (brand, auctions, catalogue, sentiment, comparables). Ten data points with the greatest bearing on the conclusions were checked against original auction pages: six stood, four had date corrections adopted here (Phillips XXI lot 55 sold 2025-05-10; Phillips XXIII lots 3 and 5 sold 2026-05-09; Monaco Legend platinum 2137 Numero 1 sold 2025-06-05 in Lugano; 200.Y.50 sold 2025-11-22). For this note I re-verified the relaunch prices (Tourbillon Souscription CHF 140,000, Extra Plat Skeleton CHF 85,000), the Phillips Hong Kong lot 923 result, and the May 2026 C187 results in USD terms.

Known gaps: no factory figures for founder-era or 447 output; no original retail prices for the old references; The Hour Glass 1994 terms undisclosed; the C117 lacks a verified before-and-after pair. Comparables: Gérald Genta under Louis Vuitton (Grande Sonnerie CHF 152,400, Retro Classics still EUR 1,000 to 5,000) and Urban Jürgensen (Ref 2 prototype CHF 508,000). First-wave independents split two ways with no middle tier.

Research was gathered by several AI research agents working online and cross-checked, then reviewed by me. Prices are time-sensitive. This is a dated market study, not investment advice; check the relevant sources before using a figure in a collection decision.

Sources